Market seems bullish after Nifty crosses 4950 levels

It has been a range bound month and no big movement in either direction has sustained. Choppiness within the broad range has, in fact, trapped many investors and traders. Volumes have been low and the usual speculative buoyancy before the Union and Railway Budgets is missing.

In the fall from 5300 levels, Nifty took support at 4675 which was also the 200 DMA (Days Moving Average). Analyzing the longer term chart there has been a breach of an important trend line. Markets are trying to inch higher, however if the Nifty does not sustain above this trend line, markets are likely to slip sharply.

Nifty was in an oversold zone so we have seen a bounce back. However a convincing rally would be seen only above 4950. There is pivot candle formation on weekly charts which may result in a downfall if Nifty does not manage a close above 4930 levels in the next couple of weeks.

Going forward we expect speculative moves on good volumes which will increase the volatility in the run up to the Union budget. Specific trend does not exist in markets so one may trade with a stop loss.

First Support for Nifty can be seen at 4675 which is also the 200 DMA after which we may see Nifty trending southwards to 4530. On the upside if Nifty crosses 4950 we may see Nifty moving upward to 5100 levels after which resistance exists at 5300 levels.