The revenues are expected to increase 21% yoy and 2% qoq for the quarter ended 30 September’10.
According to the reports of Central Electricity Authority (CEA), India’s generation capacity increased from 162.3GW to 164.5GW in first two months of the quarter. Against a target of 2,260MW to be added in the two months, nearly 2,142MW of capacity was added. Out of this 94% of the capacity added was coal based, while the balance was renewable (hydro). The total installed capacity has increased 8% from 152GW at the end of H1FY10 to 164GW in H1FY11. Average price of electricity traded on the power exchanges ranged between Rs2.3/Kwh to Rs3.4/Kwh during the quarter. Despite increasing capacity addition base, the demand deficit continues to remain over double digits. We expect this trend to continue further. Moreover, merchant prices are expected to increase in the forthcoming quarters which will benefit players with ability to execute merchant based capacities.
According to the reports of Central Electricity Authority (CEA), India’s generation capacity increased from 162.3GW to 164.5GW in first two months of the quarter. Against a target of 2,260MW to be added in the two months, nearly 2,142MW of capacity was added. Out of this 94% of the capacity added was coal based, while the balance was renewable (hydro). The total installed capacity has increased 8% from 152GW at the end of H1FY10 to 164GW in H1FY11. Average price of electricity traded on the power exchanges ranged between Rs2.3/Kwh to Rs3.4/Kwh during the quarter. Despite increasing capacity addition base, the demand deficit continues to remain over double digits. We expect this trend to continue further. Moreover, merchant prices are expected to increase in the forthcoming quarters which will benefit players with ability to execute merchant based capacities.
Taking a look at the players in this sector, individually, NTPC's net generation during the quarter increased 5% yoy. Lower generation in the hydro power plants and weak contribution from coal business is expected to drag Tata Power’s profitability. We expect revenues to decline 8% sequentially. Total generation has remained flat at 3.3BU yoy. Adani Power, Lanco Infratech and Reliance Power are also likely to report stronger operational performance due to fresh capacity additions.
The sector did not show much of a participation in the recent rally. We expect a strong movement in the sector ahead on the back of expected strong Q2FY11 numbers
No comments:
Post a Comment